The side event entitled “The future Barents Sea ecosystem: adapting and managing for 2050 and beyond” highlighted how management and marine industry may benefit from project results. A researcher, a policy maker and an industry-trade representative reported and commented on the projections for the Barents Sea in 2050 and 2100 from different perspectives, and discussed the consequences for both the fishing industry and ecosystem-based management of fisheries.
Dr. Marius Årthun described what physical, ecological and biogeochemical changes have been observed in the Barents Sea in the last decades, how we can use data on these changes to develop models, and what these models predict for the future. It is predicted that towards 2050, the northern Barents Sea air and sea surface temperature will increase with 7.4 and 3.0 °C, respectively. The pH will drop with 0.2. There will be a 37% increase in primary production. The distribution of fish populations will shift with almost 50 km towards the northeast, and also the spawning area of the Northeast Atlantic cod stock will shift further north along the Norwegian coast. These model results are robust to the CO2 emissions scenario chosen, indicating that managers and users must adapt to expected changes. Projections for 2100, however, are highly dependent on the emissions scenario chosen. All results Årthun presented, as well as many more predictions for the years 2050 and 2100, are presented in The future Barents Sea factsheet.
Marius on screen during the side event. Photo: Pauke Schots, UiT
Following this scientific talk was a presentation by Dr. Per Sandberg from the Norwegian Directorate of Fisheries. Sandberg described why it is important to manage fisheries (using maximum sustainable and economic yields), and which tools there are to manage fisheries, i.e., regulating the fishing fleet, the annual volume of catch, and implementing technical regulations such as landing size and mesh size. He described the current status of fish stocks in Norwegian waters and where they are heading in the future. He ended his presentation with an explanation on how scientific and survey data are used to determine the total allowable catch, and how these data, together with modelling predictions and international cooperation, are important to manage fisheries under climate change.
The final presentation was given by Benedicte Nielsen, a fisheries economist working for Norges Råfisklag, a Norwegian sales organization for different marine resources. Nielsen explained the importance of the fishing industry for the Norwegian economy and for the livelihoods of many people in northern Norway. Sustaining viable fish stocks and ensuring sustainable fisheries management are therefore within the DNA of fishermen, since only this guarantees them of a livelihood for themselves and their children. Nielsen showed that there has always been variations in fish stock abundance. However, the variations in abundance and location that are observed today are worrisome for the fishermen as it is unclear if these are due to natural variation, or if we are experiencing a regime shift.
Following the presentations there was an interactive panel debate moderated by representative to the Nansen Legacy Board, Dr. Anita Evenset (Akvaplan-niva). Members from the audience, including students, scientists, members of the Norwegian research council, and other stakeholders contributed to a long and lively discussion about the model predictions, the use of the ocean by fishermen and other human activities, and several other topics. The side event concluded that the work within the Nansen Legacy project has been of crucial importance for prediction on the Barents Sea ecosystem and our use of the ocean.
The event was organized by Nansen Legacy members Dr. Paul Renaud (Akvaplan-niva) and Dr. Marius Årthun (UiB and Bjerknessenteret), together with liaison to the Nansen Legacy Reference Group, Trude Borch (Akvaplan-niva).